Wednesday, March 30, 2011

FRB Update: CIT Results

Congratulations to Santa Clara, winners of this year's CIT.
FRB told you last week that success in the CIT is heavily dependent on the whims of the scheduling committee. In a 24-team tournament, an average team should have a 4% chance of winning. But depending on how a CIT team is scheduled it could have as much as a 15% chance (four home games) or as little as a 1% chance (five road games).
Santa Clara gets extra credit for its win, since it was given a difficult path to the title. It opened up at home, but then was not one of the four lucky teams to be given a bye in round two (although it did get a second home game). It then had to play three straight road games in the quarterfinals, semis and finals. Its two home games and three road games translates into only a 2% chance to win the tournament, well below the 4% average for all teams. 
By contrast, the losing finalist, Iona, had an easier than average 6% chance to win based on playing only four games, two at home and two away.

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