Congratulations to Santa Clara, winners of this year's CIT.
FRB told you last week that success in the CIT is heavily dependent on the whims of the scheduling committee. In a 24-team tournament, an average team should have a 4% chance of winning. But depending on how a CIT team is scheduled it could have as much as a 15% chance (four home games) or as little as a 1% chance (five road games).
Santa Clara gets extra credit for its win, since it was given a difficult path to the title. It opened up at home, but then was not one of the four lucky teams to be given a bye in round two (although it did get a second home game). It then had to play three straight road games in the quarterfinals, semis and finals. Its two home games and three road games translates into only a 2% chance to win the tournament, well below the 4% average for all teams.
By contrast, the losing finalist, Iona, had an easier than average 6% chance to win based on playing only four games, two at home and two away.